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January 27, 2012

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1/27

Regional Economic Update

Texas Economy Continues to Grow—The Texas economy continues to expand at a moderate pace. Texas employment grew at a 2 percent rate in 2011. Government employment rose in November and December following four months of sharp declines. Housing indicators suggest that the sector continues to heal, and energy activity remains strong.

1/27

National Economic Update

Effects of Debt-Ceiling Scare and Euro Crisis Appear Temporary—Recently released indicators suggest that overall economic activity picked up in the fourth quarter of 2011. Consumption, housing and inventory data are evidence of firmer growth.

1/26

International Economic Update

Euro-Area Uncertainty Hurts Global Growth—The global economy is expected to slow. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates in its January Economic Outlook that world gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 3.4 percent in 2012, following growth of 3.8 percent in 2011. This is down from 5 percent growth in 2010.

1/26

Quarterly Energy Update

2011 in Review—2011 continued the upward trend in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices averaged $95 per barrel in 2011, 19.7 percent higher than in 2010, but saw significant variability as concerns over the European debt crisis caused prices to fall midyear.

1/19

Latest Institute Working Papers

Financial Markets Forecasts Revisited: Are they Rational, Herding or Bold?—Working Paper No. 106—Ippei Fujiwara, Hibiki Ichiue, Yoshiyuki Nakazono and Yosuke Shigemi

Bayesian Estimation of NOEM Models: Identification and Inference in Small Samples—Working Paper No. 105— Enrique Martínez-García, Diego Vilán and Mark Wynne

Optimal Monetary Policy in a Two Country Model with Firm-Level Heterogeneity—Working Paper No. 104—by Dudley Cooke

1/19

Mexico Update

The latest data suggest a pickup in activity in the fourth quarter. Industrial production ticked up, exports rose in November, and employment grew strongly in December. The peso fell relative to the dollar in December, and inflation increased considerably in November and December. Retail sales dipped in October.

1/13

"Inflation, Slack, and Fed Credibility" finds that slack (as measured by the unemployment rate) and changes in slack are negatively correlated with changes in inflation and also deviations of inflation from long-forward inflation expectations.

1/11

Economic Letter

Increased Real House Price Volatility Signals Break from Great Moderation—A shift in the volatility of real house price growth seems to have occurred over the last decade without a similar change in volatility of real GDP growth.

1/11

Dallas Beige Book

The Eleventh District economy grew at a moderate pace since the last report. Manufacturing activity was mixed. Contacts said retail sales were robust and automobile sales held steady. Demand for business services was solid, and activity in transportation services rose modestly.

1/10

Announcement from the Federal Reserve Board

The Federal Reserve Board has announced preliminary unaudited results indicating that the Reserve Banks provided for payments of approximately $76.9 billion of their estimated 2011 net income to the U.S. Treasury. Under the Board's policy, the residual earnings of each Federal Reserve Bank, after providing for the costs of operations, payment of dividends, and the amount necessary to equate surplus with capital paid-in, are distributed to the U.S. Treasury.

1/10

Houston Economic Update

Economic activity in the Houston metropolitan area, as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas business-cycle index, grew at an annualized rate of 7 percent in November. This figure was accompanied by an upward revision of the October growth rate from 9.6 to 9.8 percent.

1/5

Agricultural Survey

Bankers responding to the fourth-quarter survey noted widespread impacts from severe drought conditions. Crop insurance was a major source of income for many farmers in 2011.

1/4

Texas Economic Indicators

The Texas economy grew at a moderate pace in November, with employment expanding at a 2.0 percent annual rate. Texas existing-home sales increased, but single-family housing permits and housing starts fell. Texas exports held steady. Manufacturing activity weakened slightly in December, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey's production index.

1/3

Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP1, 2 and 3) in Texas

In fourth quarter 2011, the Dallas Fed asked Neighborhood Stabilization Program grantees in Texas for insights on their programs—their successes, challenges, impact, lessons learned and related information.

Events

March 30, 2012

ESP: Economic Scholars Program Conference

6th Annual Undergraduate Research Conference—This annual event provides a forum for students from across the country to showcase original undergraduate research and aims to inspire others to create and pursue their own research agenda.

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ESP: Economic Scholars Program Conference

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