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February 23, 2010
According to Dallas Fed estimates, the official government statistics on payroll employment produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) underestimate the number of jobs lost in Texas since employment peaked in October 2008 by around 87,300 jobs.
Recently the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) released preliminary third quarter 2009 Covered Employment data (CEW) and revised first and second quarter data. As is our practice, the Dallas Fed has incorporated these data into our own employment estimates.
The BLS data show that Texas has lost 299,800 jobs from the peak in October 2008 through December 2009. The Dallas Fed’s estimate, which takes into account the published CEW data through third quarter 2009, is a loss of 387,100 jobs. In percentage terms, BLS shows an annualized rate of job growth of –2.4 percent compared to our figure of –3.1 percent.
The following chart depicts the BLS and Dallas Fed estimates of Texas payroll employment.
Not surprisingly, the undercount of job losses extends to the major metropolitan areas as well. The largest undercount in absolute numbers is for Dallas–Plano–Irving, but in percentage terms, the largest undercount is for Austin, while the smallest is for Houston–Baytown–Sugarland. The following table shows the absolute and percentage undercount for the six largest Texas metropolitan areas.
| Texas Job Losses Since October 2008* |
| |
Dallas Fed
estimate |
BLS
undercount |
BLS undercount
as percent of losses |
Texas |
387,100 |
|
87,300 |
|
22.6 |
|
Austin |
21,300 |
|
17,600 |
|
82.6 |
|
Dallas–Plano–Irving |
96,800 |
|
52,100 |
|
53.8 |
|
El Paso |
7,500 |
|
4,100 |
|
54.7 |
|
Fort Worth–Arlington |
17,500 |
|
11,000 |
|
62.9 |
|
Houston–Baytown–Sugar Land |
100,700 |
|
13,600 |
|
13.5 |
|
San Antonio |
15,300 |
|
8,500 |
|
55.6 |
|
|
| * Calculations based on data seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed |
The BLS monthly estimate of payroll employment (CES) is based on a sample of Texas firms. On an annual basis, the BLS conducts a benchmarking process that brings the CES data into conformity with the CEW data. The Dallas Fed makes this adjustment quarterly.
On March 4, the BLS will publish revised data that incorporate CEW data through third quarter 2009. We expect the revised data will be closer to our estimates. That has been the case every year since we began our “early” benchmarking project.
Finally, it is important to point out that the fourth quarter data have not yet been benchmarked and that the 2009 CEW data that we have used through the third quarter are themselves subject to future revision.
—Franklin D. Berger
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| About FRB Dallas-Adjusted
Employment Data CEW
data are published on a quarterly basis.
The Dallas Fed uses this new information
to estimate the TWC final series as soon
as these data are published. The TWC revises
its payroll employment estimates once per
year, with the release of January data in
March.
FRB Dallas-adjusted employment has been very useful in anticipating TWC’s final revisions. Over the 17 quarters for which early benchmark results are available (fourth quarter 2003 through third quarter 2008), Dallas Fed adjustments have resulted in an average upward revision from the initial TWC growth estimates of 0.7 percentage points. Over the period for which final TWC data are available (fourth quarter 2003 through fourth quarter 2006) our Dallas Fed adjustments have underestimated final TWC growth rates by an average of 0.2 percentage points.
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