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FRB Dallas-Adjusted Texas Employment

February 23, 2010

According to Dallas Fed estimates, the official government statistics on payroll employment produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) underestimate the number of jobs lost in Texas since employment peaked in October 2008 by around 87,300 jobs.          

Recently the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) released preliminary third quarter 2009 Covered Employment data (CEW) and revised first and second quarter data. As is our practice, the Dallas Fed has incorporated these data into our own employment estimates.

The BLS data show that Texas has lost 299,800 jobs from the peak in October 2008 through December 2009. The Dallas Fed’s estimate, which takes into account the published CEW data through third quarter 2009, is a loss of 387,100 jobs. In percentage terms, BLS shows an annualized rate of job growth of –2.4 percent compared to our figure of –3.1 percent.

The following chart depicts the BLS and Dallas Fed estimates of Texas payroll employment.

 Texas

Not surprisingly, the undercount of job losses extends to the major metropolitan areas as well. The largest undercount in absolute numbers is for Dallas–Plano–Irving, but in percentage terms, the largest undercount is for Austin, while the smallest is for Houston–Baytown–Sugarland. The following table shows the absolute and percentage undercount for the six largest Texas metropolitan areas.

Texas Job Losses Since October 2008*
 

Dallas Fed
estimate

BLS
undercount

BLS undercount
as percent of losses

Texas

387,100

 

87,300

 

22.6

 

Austin

21,300

 

17,600

 

82.6

 

Dallas–Plano–Irving

96,800

 

52,100

 

53.8

 

El Paso

7,500

 

4,100

 

54.7

 

Fort Worth–Arlington

17,500

 

11,000

 

62.9

 

Houston–Baytown–Sugar Land

100,700

 

13,600

 

13.5

 

San Antonio

15,300

 

8,500

 

55.6

 
* Calculations based on data seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed

The BLS monthly estimate of payroll employment (CES) is based on a sample of Texas firms. On an annual basis, the BLS conducts a benchmarking process that brings the CES data into conformity with the CEW data. The Dallas Fed makes this adjustment quarterly.

On March 4, the BLS will publish revised data that incorporate CEW data through third quarter 2009. We expect the revised data will be closer to our estimates. That has been the case every year since we began our “early” benchmarking project.

Finally, it is important to point out that the fourth quarter data have not yet been benchmarked and that the 2009 CEW data that we have used through the third quarter are themselves subject to future revision.

—Franklin D. Berger

About FRB Dallas-Adjusted Employment Data

CEW data are published on a quarterly basis. The Dallas Fed uses this new information to estimate the TWC final series as soon as these data are published. The TWC revises its payroll employment estimates once per year, with the release of January data in March.

FRB Dallas-adjusted employment has been very useful in anticipating TWC’s final revisions. Over the 17 quarters for which early benchmark results are available (fourth quarter 2003 through third quarter 2008), Dallas Fed adjustments have resulted in an average upward revision from the initial TWC growth estimates of 0.7 percentage points. Over the period for which final TWC data are available (fourth quarter 2003 through fourth quarter 2006) our Dallas Fed adjustments have underestimated final TWC growth rates by an average of 0.2 percentage points.

Related Articles

"Getting a Jump on Texas Employment Revisions," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Nov./Dec. 2005.

"Reassessing Texas Employment Growth," PDF Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, July/Aug. 1993

"Solving the Mystery of the Disappearing January Blip in State Employment Data," PDF Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter 1994

For More Information

Contact Frank Berger at frank.d.berger@dal.frb.org.

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"Getting a Jump on Texas Employment Revisions"
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"Reassessing Texas Employment Growth" PDF
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"Solving the Mystery of the Disappearing January Blip in State Employment Data" PDF
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