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What's New—The Most Recent Additions to the Dallas Fed Website

2012

1/30   Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update
	The headline PCE price index posted an annualized increase of just 0.8 percent in December, marking a fourth consecutive month of modest headline rates, after a string of robust readings over the first part of 2011.

1/30   Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for December was an annualized 1.5 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for December was 0.8 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.9 percent.

1/30   Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
	Texas factory activity increased in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 0.2 to 5.8, suggesting growth resumed this month.

1/27   Regional Economic Update
Texas Economy Continues to Grow—The Texas economy continues to expand at a moderate pace. Texas employment grew at a 2 percent rate in 2011. Government employment rose in November and December following four months of sharp declines. Housing indicators suggest that the sector continues to heal, and energy activity remains strong.

1/27   National Economic Update
	Effects of Debt-Ceiling Scare and Euro Crisis Appear Temporary—Recently released indicators suggest that overall economic activity picked up in the fourth quarter of 2011. Consumption, housing and inventory data are evidence of firmer growth.

1/26   International Economic Update
Euro-Area Uncertainty Hurts Global Growth—The global economy is expected to slow. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates in its January Economic Outlook that world gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 3.4 percent in 2012, following growth of 3.8 percent in 2011. This is down from 5 percent growth in 2010.

1/26   Quarterly Energy Update
	2011 in Review—2011 continued the upward trend in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices averaged $95 per barrel in 2011, 19.7 percent higher than in 2010, but saw significant variability as concerns over the European debt crisis caused prices to fall midyear.

1/19   Latest Institute Working Papers

Financial Markets Forecasts Revisited: Are they Rational, Herding or Bold?—Working Paper No. 106—Ippei Fujiwara, Hibiki Ichiue, Yoshiyuki Nakazono and Yosuke Shigemi Bayesian Estimation of NOEM Models: Identification and Inference in Small Samples—Working Paper No. 105— Enrique Martínez-García, Diego Vilán and Mark Wynne Optimal Monetary Policy in a Two Country Model with Firm-Level Heterogeneity—Working Paper No. 104—by Dudley Cooke

1/19   Mexico Update
	The latest data suggest a pickup in activity in the fourth quarter. Industrial production ticked up, exports rose in November, and employment grew strongly in December. The peso fell relative to the dollar in December, and inflation increased considerably in November and December. Retail sales dipped in October.

1/13   Staff Papers
"Inflation, Slack, and Fed Credibility" finds that slack (as measured by the unemployment rate) and changes in slack are negatively correlated with changes in inflation and also deviations of inflation from long-forward inflation expectations.

1/11   Economic Letter
	Increased Real House Price Volatility Signals Break from Great Moderation—A shift in the volatility of real house price growth seems to have occurred over the last decade without a similar change in volatility of real GDP growth.

1/11   Dallas Beige Book
The Eleventh District economy grew at a moderate pace since the last report. Manufacturing activity was mixed. Contacts said retail sales were robust and automobile sales held steady. Demand for business services was solid, and activity in transportation services rose modestly.

1/10   Announcement from the Federal Reserve Board

The Federal Reserve Board has announced preliminary unaudited results indicating that the Reserve Banks provided for payments of approximately $76.9 billion of their estimated 2011 net income to the U.S. Treasury. Under the Board's policy, the residual earnings of each Federal Reserve Bank, after providing for the costs of operations, payment of dividends, and the amount necessary to equate surplus with capital paid-in, are distributed to the U.S. Treasury.

1/10   Houston Economic Update
Economic activity in the Houston metropolitan area, as measured by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas business-cycle index, grew at an annualized rate of 7 percent in November. This figure was accompanied by an upward revision of the October growth rate from 9.6 to 9.8 percent.

1/5   Agricultural Survey
	Bankers responding to the fourth-quarter survey noted widespread impacts from severe drought conditions. Crop insurance was a major source of income for many farmers in 2011.

1/4   Texas Economic Indicators
The Texas economy grew at a moderate pace in November, with employment expanding at a 2.0 percent annual rate. Texas existing-home sales increased, but single-family housing permits and housing starts fell. Texas exports held steady. Manufacturing activity weakened slightly in December, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey's production index.

1/3   Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP1, 2 and 3) in Texas
	In fourth quarter 2011, the Dallas Fed asked Neighborhood Stabilization Program grantees in Texas for insights on their programs—their successes, challenges, impact, lessons learned and related information.

2011

12/28   Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Texas service sector activity increased in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, fell from 14 to 9, which is indicative of slower revenue growth.

12/27   Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
	Texas factory activity weakened slightly in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a second negative reading but moved up from –5.1 to –1.3. This suggests a slowing of the pace of decline.

12/23   Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update

The PCE data release shows consumer price inflation running at a slower pace for a third straight month. The headline PCE price index fell slightly, declining at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent. This follows a slight decline—0.7 percent annualized—in October and a moderate 2.0 percent reading in September. Falling gasoline prices have been a major contributor to this pattern of softer headline numbers. In November, falling food prices also weighed on the headline index.

12/23   Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
	The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for November was an annualized 1.2 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for November was -0.5 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.0 percent.

12/13   Economic Letter

Relating Commodity Prices to Underlying Inflation: The Role of Expectations—Because of changing expectations, core inflation that in the 1970s reacted strongly to fluctuations in commodity price inflation responds very little today. In the 1970s, the public was quick to change its outlook for future inflation in response to temporary commodity price shocks. However, in more recent decades, expectations have been largely unresponsive to commodity prices.

12/9   Houston Economic Update
The Houston metropolitan area business-cycle index produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates economic activity in the city grew at an annualized rate of 9.6 percent in October, the highest reading since April. The ability of Houston and Texas to plug into the global economy has played a large part in the region's exceptional performance this year.

12/9   Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Papers
	Size, Openness, and Macroeconomic Interdependence. How Have Global Shocks Impacted the Real Effective Exchange Rates of Individual Euro Area Countries Since the Euro's Creation? Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels Thousands of Models, One Story: Current Account Imbalances in the Global Economy

12/7   International House Price Database

Access to international house price data with ample geographic and temporal coverage facilitates the work of researchers, scholars and policymakers interested in the study of housing through cross-country comparison and time series analysis. To promote this research and enhance understanding of its international dimension, the Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute has made available its own international house price database.

12/7   Texas Economic Indicators
	Growth in the Texas economy slowed moderately, with employment expanding at a 0.8 percent annual rate in October. Texas home prices fell, but single-family housing permits, housing starts and existing-home sales all rose. Texas exports increased slightly in the third quarter. Manufacturing activity contracted in November, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey's production index.

12/7   Letters to Congress on Federal Reserve's Emergency Lending Activities During the Financial Crisis
Chairman Bernanke responds to a series of recent articles concerning the Fed's emergency lending activities during the financial crisis and addresses some of the most serious errors and claims in those articles.

12/6   Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Papers

"A Cross-Country Quarterly Database of Real House Prices: A Methodological Note"—In this paper, the authors build from (mainly) publicly available national sources a database of (nominal and real) house prices—complemented with data on private disposable income (PDI)—for 19 advanced countries at a quarterly frequency, starting in the first quarter of 1975. "Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational?" provides new evidence in support of the idea that bouts of optimism and pessimism drive much of U.S. business cycles. "Immigrant Language Barriers and House Prices" explores whether language skills are important in explaining the nexus between house prices and immigrant inflows.

12/6   Mexico Economic Update
The Mexican economy accelerated slightly in the third quarter, according to recently released data. Mexico gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.3 percent quarter over quarter, up from 1.1 percent in the second quarter. Slower growth in manufacturing, construction, mining and services was partly offset by robust growth in the agricultural sector.

12/5   Dallas Fed Board Chair and Deputy Chair for 2012 Appointed
	The Federal Reserve Board has announced the designation of the chairs and deputy chairs of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks for 2012. Herbert D. Kelleher, founder and chairman emeritus of Southwest Airlines, was renamed chair of the Dallas Fed board of directors. Myron E. Ullman III, CEO and chairman of the board of J.C. Penney Company, Inc., was renamed deputy chair.

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