"The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates" attacks the Meese-Rogoff (exchange rate disconnect) puzzle from a different perspective: out-of-sample interval forecasting.
Keynesian Economics without the LM and IS Curves: A Dynamic Generalization of the Taylor-Romer Model.
The Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution: New Evidence from 401(k) Participation.
"It is imperative that all banking organizations and their regulators work together to ensure that the needs of creditworthy borrowers are met in a manner consistent with safety and soundness."
On November 17, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $150 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. The results of the auction are listed on the Board's website.
Most measures of the economy contracted in recent months as financial turmoil escalated to alarming levels. While recent weeks have shown small signs of improvement in the credit market, further slowing of real growth appears likely.
The November 2008 Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey will be released on Monday, November 24 instead of Tuesday, November 25, as previously listed.
"The 10th anniversary of the euro is an opportunity not only to celebrate an impressive and historic achievement, but also to reaffirm our commitment to cooperation as we address the challenges of an increasingly integrated global economy. Central bankers and other policymakers around the world must continue to work together to address disruptions in credit markets and to promote a vibrant global economy."
On November 10, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $150 billion in 17-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. This was a forward auction designed to provide term funding over year-end—the awarded loans will settle on December 22, 2008. The results are listed on the Board website.
The Texas economy is facing the same headwinds afflicting the nation as a whole. In the third quarter, Texas showed growth, but at a slower pace than in previous periods. It appears the credit crunch is taking a toll in the region. High energy prices—which were supporting the oil and gas industry in Texas—have pulled back severely in recent weeks, but this also means businesses and consumers get some relief from the elevated prices.
Federal Reserve Board Alerts Public to Instances of Questionable Solicitations Directed at Consumers
The Federal Reserve Banks do not directly sponsor consumer lending programs. We draw your attention to a fraudulent scheme that has surfaced using the name of the Federal Reserve to prey on consumers who may not be so clear on this point. This scheme is a variation on an old scam that could result in theft of the victim's money, identity or both. The Federal Reserve Board's recent press release provides a description of the scheme and gives sound advice to consumers seeking financial options.
The third quarter survey found continued apprehension about farming and ranching conditions in the Eleventh District agricultural community. A slightly higher share of bankers cited declining loan repayment rates, rising requests for loan renewals and extensions, and an increase in collateral levels compared with last quarter.
"Despite the efforts of the Fed, the hope that comes with a new presidency, and what will hopefully be responsible and carefully calibrated fiscal initiatives for the Congress, I believe we have an epic challenge ahead of us. We are navigating the mother of all financial storms. We will certainly come out of it with a lesser number of ships than we entered it with, for we cannot and should not 'relieve the rashness of distress that financiers' and other imprudent decisionmakers 'have brought upon themselves.'”
New Dallas Fed Indicator Tracks Texas Retail Sales—A new economic indicator published monthly by the Dallas Fed will provide timely estimates of retail sales in Texas.
Labor Markets in Turbulent Times: Evidence from Mexico—Changing labor market flows during crises may cause deep drops in worker productivity.
On the Record: Making Sense of Today's Globalized Economy—University of Wisconsin professor Charles Engel, a senior fellow of the Dallas Fed's Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, says that global cooperation is needed to address the current financial crisis.
Spotlight: Commercial Real Estate Investment—U.S. financial woes are taking a toll on commercial real estate investment in Texas. Uncertainty is prevalent among buyers and sellers of office, industrial, retail and apartment properties, and property sales are likely to remain subdued in the near term.
The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for September was an annualized 2.2 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for September was 1.3 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 2.1 percent.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 1 percent.
This issue of e-Perspectives gives an overview of the joint report, "The Enduring Challenge of Concentrated Poverty in America: Case Studies from Communities Across the U.S.," which aims to deepen understanding of how poverty and place intersect in the United States.
"With the economy likely to be weak for several quarters, and with some risk of a protracted slowdown, consideration of a fiscal package by the Congress at this juncture seems appropriate."
The Federal Reserve System's latest Beige Book survey has been released. The Dallas Beige Book, along with a link to the national summary and reports from other Federal Reserve Districts, is available online.
"The problems now evident in the markets and in the economy are large and complex, but, in my judgment, our government now has the tools it needs to confront and solve them. Our strategy will continue to evolve and be refined as we adapt to new developments and the inevitable setbacks."
Addressing a Credit Crisis—Remarks before the International Institute of Finance Annual Membership Meeting in Washington, D.C.
The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 1-1/2 percent.
"I believe that the bold actions taken by the Congress, the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and other agencies, together with the natural recuperative powers of the financial markets, will lay the groundwork for financial and economic recovery."
On October 6, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $150 billion in 85-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Results of the auction are listed on the Board website.
Vertical Specialization and International Business Cycle Synchronization explores the impact of vertical specialization—trade in goods across multiple stages of production—on the relationship between trade and international business cycle synchronization.
Residential Foreclosures in Texas Depart from National Trends—Since 2005, mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures across the U.S. have escalated from historically low levels. In Texas, the number of foreclosures has been among the highest in the nation. However, Texas has the second-largest population among the 50 states and a large number of home mortgages.
The price of a McDonald's Big Mac may provide a glimpse into the factors that shape regional, national and global pricing. "The Big Mac: A Global-to-Local Look at Pricing" finds price-setting behaviors for a relatively simple product like the Big Mac are quite complex.
The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for August was an annualized 2.2 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for August was 0.4 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 3.0 percent.
"Responding to Turbulence (With Reference to Bob Dylan, Alan Brooke, Washington Irving, Anna Fisher and Marcus Nadler)"—Remarks before the Money Marketeers of New York University.
Texas Economy Moderating—The Texas economy continues to expand, but growth is decelerating due to a slowdown in the national economy, elevated commodity prices and the ongoing credit crunch.
"The intensification of financial stress in recent weeks, which will make lenders still more cautious about extending credit to households and business, could prove a significant further drag on growth. The downside risks to the outlook thus remain a significant concern."
"Despite the efforts of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and other agencies, global financial markets remain under extraordinary stress. Action by the Congress is urgently required to stabilize the situation and avert what otherwise could be very serious consequences for our financial markets and for our economy."
On September 22, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $75 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. The results of the auction are listed on the Board website.
The Dallas Fed and its branches in the 11th District are open and operating following the impact of Hurricane Ike. Information for financial institutions affected by the hurricane will continue to be updated on the Dallas Fed website.
Uncharted Waters—Currently, the U.S. economy is navigating its way through the combined effects of complex financial turmoil and an unfavorable terms-of-trade shock primarily due to elevated energy and commodity prices.
The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank are announcing coordinated measures designed to address the continued elevated pressures in U.S. dollar short-term funding markets.
"An International Perspective on Oil Price Shocks and U.S. Economic Activity" finds that both oil supply and oil demand shocks have contributed significantly to oil price fluctuations and that U.S. output fluctuations are derived largely from domestic shocks.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.
"We must find ways to move more of our students, especially minorities and those from disadvantaged backgrounds, into education after high school. The historically black colleges and universities have long played a vital role in this regard."
"While it seems pretty clear that economic momentum is slowing, the jury is out on whether lesser momentum will be sufficient to translate into relief on the price front over the intermediate to longer term. In East Texas parlance, 'it might could, but it mightn’t'; it most definitely has not thus far."
As expected, revisions to Houston’s wage and salary employment growth were positive through the first quarter of this year, implying six-month job growth of about 2.2 percent, or a pace of about 55,000 new jobs in 2008.
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