Second Quarter 2001
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Economic and Financial Review was published from 1999 until 2001.

Can the Stock Market Tell Bank Supervisors Anything They Don't Already Know?
Jeffery W. Gunther, Mark E. Levonian, and Robert R. Moore

This article provides evidence consistent with recent policy proposals calling for a greater role for market forces in promoting a safe and sound financial system. The authors' empirical results indicate a measure of expected default probability distilled from equity prices helps predict the financial condition of individual banking organizations, as reflected in their supervisory ratings. Moreover, the stock market data have predictive power over and above the information in the quarterly financial statements available to supervisors between inspections. These findings suggest financial markets can provide useful information to supplement supervisory assessments, particularly between inspections, and point to the value of additional research to further clarify the information content of market prices and quantities.

The Democratization of America's Capital Markets
John V. Duca

In this article, John Duca shows how financial innovations have benefited the United States by increasing the availability of financing for new firms and improving Americans' access to financial investments. Two dramatic examples are the explosive growth of venture capital financing and the doubling of stock ownership rates since the early 1980s. This democratization of America's capital markets stems from technological improvements that have cut the transaction and information costs of investing and from a series of deregulatory steps aimed at improving the availability of capital.

The Transition to Consumption Taxation, Part 2: The Impact on Existing Financial Assets
Alan D. Viard

Replacing the income tax with a consumption tax is likely to reduce the total value of the capital stock. Alan D. Viard reviews how this decline is divided between bondholders and stockholders and the effect on household borrowers and lenders. He explains that the results depend on whether monetary policy accommodates the tax through a higher price level. Without accommodation, the decline in the value of capital is largely borne by stockholders and there is little reallocation of wealth between household borrowers and lenders. If the tax is fully accommodated, bondholders bear heavier burdens than stockholders and household borrowers gain at the expense of household lenders.