http://www.dallasfed.org/eyi/index.html The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reviews recent economic conditions in Texas and the nation and the globe. http://www.dallasfed.org/images/rss-logo.gif http://www.dallasfed.org/ Fri, 14 November 2008 15:15 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0807.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0807.cfm Most measures of the economy contracted in recent months as financial turmoil escalated to alarming levels. While recent weeks have shown small signs of improvement in the credit market, further slowing of real growth appears likely. Thurs, 30 October 2008 11:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2008/int0807.cfm http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2008/int0807.cfm The financial crisis that started in the United States has spread to European financial markets and now threatens emerging economies. Expectations for global growth have declined as a result of the turmoil, and weakened demand is causing inflationary pressures to subside. Wed, 25 September 2008 16:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2008/0805.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2008/0805.cfm The Texas economy continues to expand, but growth is decelerating due to a slowdown in the national economy, elevated commodity prices and the ongoing credit crunch. Fri, 19 September 2008 18:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0806.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0806.cfm Currently, the U.S. economy is navigating its way through the combined effects of complex financial turmoil and an unfavorable terms-of-trade shock primarily due to elevated energy and commodity prices. Fri, 19 September 2008 18:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0806.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0806.cfm Currently, the U.S. economy is navigating its way through the combined effects of complex financial turmoil and an unfavorable terms-of-trade shock primarily due to elevated energy and commodity prices. Fri, 19 September 2008 18:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2008/int0806.cfm http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2008/int0806.cfm Global economic activity remains weak. Growth in many parts of the world has come in lower than expected in the second quarter, while it was stronger than expected in the U.S. Fri, 15 August 2008 11:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0803.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0803.cfm After hitting an all-time high (intraday) of $147.27 on July 11, oil prices pulled back, closing at $118.58 on August 6. Prices are now 20 percent below their record high. Even after the recent decline, prices are almost 60 percent above year-ago levels and up around 20 percent year-to-date. Fri, 15 August 2008 11:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2008/0804.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2008/0804.cfm The regional economy is expanding at a moderate pace and continues to outperform the national average. Certain sectors of the Texas economy are showing signs of weakness, yet the overall effects have been mitigated by strength in exports and the energy sector. Tues, 12 August 2008 17:15 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0805.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0805.cfm Recent data point to a surprisingly resilient economy in spite of financial turmoil and troubles in the housing sector. Of growing concern, however, are increasingly significant upside risks to inflation and continued downside risks to growth. Tues, 12 August 2008 17:15 CST http://dallasfed.org/gmpi/update/2008/int0805.cfm http://dallasfed.org/gmpi/update/2008/int0805.cfm Global economic activity continues to expand, but at a slower pace. Sluggish growth in the advanced economies is expected to continue at least until the first half of 2009. The rapid growth in the emerging markets is likely to soften. Thur, 24 July 2008 15:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2008/0805.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2008/0805.cfm After Houston added close to 100,000 jobs in 2006 and 2007, its job growth is now running at a pace of only 40,000 per year. These latest job numbers are still subject to revision, but today’s economic backdrop of slower national and global expansion provides an easy rationale for a local deceleration. Tues, 24 June 2008 13:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/gmpi/update/2008/int0804.cfm http://dallasfed.org/gmpi/update/2008/int0804.cfm The current international situation is best characterized as slow economic growth and higher inflation among the advanced economies and steady growth with higher inflation among the emerging market economies. Tues, 17 June 2008 9:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2008/0804.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2008/0804.cfm Payroll employment growth in Houston slowed to a 1.4 percent annual rate over the last quarter—a third of the growth rate seen in 2007. This broad-based slowdown seems plausible in light of national economic problems, but other data look less ominous. Mon, 5 May 2008 10:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0803.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0803.cfm Regional Economy Continues to Moderate--The Eleventh District economy slowed since January but continues to outperform the nation. While signals remain mixed, there is increased sentiment that Texas economic activity will not rebound to its trend rate of growth until 2009. Thu, 1 May 2008 14:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0803.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0803.cfm Broad-Based Softness in Early 2008--Recent reports reflect a fragile national economy. The economy grew slowly again in first quarter 2008, and more recent indicators suggest that economic activity has weakened in the second quarter amid increased upward pressures on food and energy prices that are causing inflationary pressures to edge up. Wed, 30 Apr 2008 14:39 CST http://dallasfed.org/gmpi/update/2008/int0803.cfm http://dallasfed.org/gmpi/update/2008/int0803.cfm The International Monetary Fund's baseline projection of global growth for 2008 is 3.7 percent, down from 4.9 percent in 2007. Other analysts also forecast sluggish growth in the advanced economies in 2008 and 2009. The rapid expansion in the developing world, led by China and India, is expected to soften, but the pace will continue to be strong. Wed, 30 Apr 2008 12:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0802.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0802.cfm Oil prices continued rising, with the benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil setting new records week after week and strengthening by about 20 percent in April alone. On Tuesday, April 23, WTI surged to nearly $120 per barrel, eclipsing the previous inflation-adjusted high of $104.10 set in April 1980. Mon, 21 Apr 2008 9:40 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2008/0803.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2008/0803.cfm Two of the most important underpinnings of Houston's economy, national and global growth, have both pulled back significantly. Evidence is mixed on whether Houston has also slowed. Fri, 4 Apr 2008 16:12 CST http://dallasfed.org/gmpi/update/2008/int0802.cfm http://dallasfed.org/gmpi/update/2008/int0802.cfm Recent evidence suggests that the overall outlook for global growth has deteriorated. Activity in most economies is decelerating, and, at the same time, inflationary pressures are rising. The U.S. continues to face increased threats to growth, and other economies are not immune, especially the euro zone and the United Kingdom. Fri, 4 Apr 2008 16:12 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0802.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0802.cfm Weakening Real Economy, Moderating Inflation--Data released over the past few weeks are mixed. The national economy has weakened further, but inflationary pressures appear to be moderating. Fri, 4 Apr 2008 16:12 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2008/0801.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2008/0801.cfm The Texas economy continues to slow. Economic growth is still moderate, but there is more evidence that some business leaders are expecting further weakness and engaging in reinforcing actions, such as cutting capital spending, paring down inventories and reducing or freezing employment. Tues, 19 Feb 2008 16:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-int/2008/0801.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-int/2008/0801.cfm Global output is expanding at healthy, but noticeably declining, rates. Evidence of slower credit and real activity growth is materializing throughout the industrialized world. Thurs, 15 Feb 2008 17:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0801.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2008/0801.cfm Recent reports point to an outlook of sluggish economic growth and continued upward price pressures from food, energy and imports. Real GDP growth slowed from its 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter to a weak 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter. Fri, 18 Jan 2008 15:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2008/0801.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2008/0801.cfm The Houston economy is probably on track to add 100,000 new jobs in 2007, once all the revisions are complete. The local economy continues to click along, with the one notable exception of housing. Fri, 14 Dec 2007 16:15:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2007/0709.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2007/0709.cfm Real GDP growth in the third quarter was revised up from 3.9 to 4.9 percent, with 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points of the improvement owing to upward revisions in inventory investment and net exports, respectively. All major categories posted gains with the exception of residential investment, whose declines intensified and cut more than one percentage point from overall GDP growth. Fri, 14 Dec 2007 14:15:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2007/0709.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2007/0709.cfm The Texas economy has weakened in recent weeks, but Texas is still performing better than the nation. Employment growth has slowed since the first half of 2007. Manufacturing and housing are the most fragile sectors, but growth has moderated in other areas as well. Mon, 5 Nov 2007 13:30:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2007/0708.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2007/0708.cfm Data released over the past few weeks suggest that overall economic growth remains moderate and inflationary pressures are likely to continue to subside. Downside risks to both household and business spending appear somewhat less troubling. Mon, 5 Nov 2007 13:30:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2007/0708.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2007/0708.cfm The Texas economy expanded moderately in recent weeks but showed continued signs of deceleration. There was considerable weakness in manufacturing and construction even as services and energy sectors remained pockets of strength. Private-sector job growth strengthened in the third quarter. Thu, 1 Nov 2007 13:00:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0704.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0704.cfm Oil prices have been elevated and rising throughout 2007, climbing from $50 in mid-January to over $90 in mid-October, an astounding 86 percent gain. Oil futures prices remain in fairly sharp backwardation, which means that the market expects presently high oil prices to fall in the long term. Although this has been the case through many price spikes this year, long-term oil price expectations today have strengthened by almost 15 percent since mid-August. Wed, 17 Oct 2007 1:15:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2007/0707.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2007/0707.cfm Some of the air appears to be coming out of the recent boom in Houston. Houston's numbers look great compared with a sluggish U.S. economy but are well short of the year-ago results. Wed, 26 Sept 2007 14:00:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2007/0707.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2007/0707.cfm The latest data reinforce the impression of an economy in which growth remains moderate and inflationary pressures are likely to continue to subside. A soft landing with a slow convergence to trend growth is probable, unless uncertainties among households and investors suddenly trigger a sharp consumption slowdown or the credit crunch spreads beyond the housing sector. Tues, 18 Sept 2007 9:30:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2007/0706.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2007/0706.cfm Growth in Texas economic activity continues to cool as expected. Job gains remain quite strong and are still outperforming much of the rest of the country, but recent financial market turmoil has created additional headwinds for the economy. Thu, 9 Aug 2007 12:30:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0703.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0703.cfm Oil prices have been volatile in recent weeks. They bounced to an all-time high of $78.22 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude oil on July 31 and fell to a close of $72.07 on August 6. A weaker U.S. dollar and overall tightness in the world oil market are keeping oil prices aloft. Thu, 9 Aug 2007 12:30:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2007/0705.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2007/0705.cfm The Texas economy picked up slightly in the second quarter. Thu, 9 Aug 2007 12:30:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2007/0706.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2007/0706.cfm The growth of real GDP accelerated in the second quarter to a 3.4 percent annualized rate, up from 0.6 percent in the first quarter. Every category but consumption participated in the improvement. Mon, 30 July 2007 09:30:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2007/0706.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-hou/2007/0706.cfm Houston's economy has slowed along with a decline in U.S. growth and a pause in the expansion of domestic drilling activity. The job market, however, suggests that the bottom may have passed in the first quarter of this year.